2007-12-07

Continent lost?

Say Frumkin



(the Malignant priority of youth)

On July, 10 2007

Part I

The friend has sent me from England the English translation of the interview published in the Danish language with German professor Gunnarom Gejnzonom, having advised to read it, despite of possible depressive reaction. I would not like to read 16 pages at all, as at me and so the heap not read has collected. But having seen the beginning, I could not come off any more.
Interview have been taken concerning an output in 2003 of his sensational book: « Sons and world supremacy: a role of terror in rise and falling of the nations » (Sohne und Weltmacht: Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen). This book became the best seller all over the world, but to the English language till now is not transferred. In the introduction the citation of the modern German philosopher considering is resulted in the book, that this book is not less important and significant, rather than Marks's "Capital".

Having read it, I have immediately gone on Google and have found out, that the author - the 63-years professor of the Bremen university, the sociologist, the economist and the researcher of a genocide. It has written set of books about rising and a decline of civilizations, since the Bronze age, Ancient Greece, middle East and буддистских the countries and finishing the Holocaust and modern Europe.
In the book « Sons and world supremacy » it gives an explanation to the phenomenon generated a unforeseen and inexplicable wave of terrorism and violence which breaks now our world, having named this phenomenon « a malignant demographic priority of youth » (« Youth Bulge »).

Definition of this phenomenon proves to be true elementary mathematical calculation - comparison of quantity of men in the age of 40 - 44 years with boys in the age of from 0 till 4 years. Demographic failure occurs then when on everyone 100 men in the age of 40 - 44 years are necessary less, than 80 boys in the age of from 0 till 4 years. In Germany this parity is equal 100/50, and in sector of Gaza - 100/464.

Гейнзон uses the term « demographic failure » to characterize the countries which will be unable to resist to a priority of youth from other countries. Germany and Japan демографически are ready to delivery to the countries similar Muslim, - to Afghanistan (100 men / 403 of the boy), Iraq (100 men / 351 of the boy) and Somalia (100 men / 364 of the boy).
The violence tends to occur in those societies where young men from 15 till 29 years make more than 30 % from the general population. The reasons - religion, nationalism, marxism, fascism i.e. in the name of what this violence is managed, - are insignificant. Now in the world there are 67 countries with a demographic priority of youth, in 60 from them already occurs either a mass genocide, or civil war.

Гейнзон does not consider, that the economic and humanitarian help to the countries with a demographic priority of youth can prevent wars, social excitements, terror or massacre. On the contrary, in some cases this material aid given with the best intentions, is the reason of violence. It regrets for the decision of America to send the armies to Iraq and Afghanistan, it counts campaign on intervention in affairs of Darfur completely useless. Гейнзон advises to inform Palestinians, that the West will not pay in him any more for unlimited деторождение, that they should feed the families with 10 and more children. It also condemns widely widespread theory of the western elite according to which all violence in a geographical belt from Northern Africa up to Philippines, and also distribution of terrorism on all other part of the world is caused by the unsolved арабо-Israeli conflict.

Starving people are not at war, they only suffer. But violence - predicted and inevitable result when young people are full and live in a society where it is too many them and where they are indignant at this society as understand, that it is not capable to claim for them.

For last years the West has collided a huge priority of youth in the most part of the Muslim world where there is a population explosion. During only five generations (1900 - 2000) the population in the Muslim world has grown from 150 million up to 1200 million person, i.e. it is more than on 800 %. For comparison: the population of China has grown from 400 million up to 1200 million person (300 %), and the population of India - from 250 million up to 1000 million (400 %).


Between 1988 and 2002 in less developed countries were born 900 million sons, and hot points became practically predicted: on the eve талибанского revolution in 1993 the population of Afghanistan has grown with 14 up to 22 million; in Iraq in 1950 was 5 million person, and now there 25 million, despite of constant wars during a quarter of century; since 1967 the population of the Western coast and sector of Gaza has grown with 450000 up to 3,3 million, and 47 % from them are younger than 15 years!

By the end of life of present generation in Afghanistan as much young men than 20 years, how many in France and the incorporated Germany taken together will be younger. The Palestinian aggression of recent months and years cannot be explained Israeli "occupation" (eventually, it began 30 years ago), poverty (the most aggressive regions of the Muslim world not the poorest) or humiliations. It is simple violence in the name of violence.

On the general recognition, movements Гитлера and Mussolini, the early Bolshevism, маоистское movement in China both many other massacre and wars were not result of a demographic priority of youth. But if at Germans after 1945 birth rate was same as during the period between 1900 and 1914 now the population of Germany would make almost 500 million citizens, and approximately 80 million would come on young men in the age of from 15 till 29 years (now in this age group of all of 7 million). We can ask a question: would conduct itself these of 80 million as peacefully how present 7 million, or they would want to return to Germany Бреслау (present Вроцлав), Danzig (Gdansk), Кенигсберг (Kaliningrad) which have departed to Poland and the USSR in 1945 - 1946 гг?
Palestinians are the most indicative example: they receive more than the international help per capita, than any other displaced persons or refugees as the income of each Palestinian family is estimated by quantity of children. Thus, children - not material burden, and on the contrary - a fine source of the income.

In the meantime in Lebanon, Tunis, Algeria, Iran, Turkey, Emirates and in some other countries birth rate has decreased to a level of 2 children in family as there to contain and train children - pleasure rather expensive. And though in these countries still there is "overabundance" of young people which were born earlier, in some years the demographic priority of youth will be liquidated and will cease to be dangerous.
Changes of the American system велфэра evidently show, how it is possible "to repair" demographic failure. In 1935 in the USA have been accepted the law « the Help to children - dependents » which guaranteed the help against the state of each mother having minor children in families where the husband either has died, or became the invalid. At that time to any woman, white or black, it was a shame to receive the grant to illegitimate children from a society. But by 1965 the social ethics has changed: the man in family of jobless mother became a handicap while illegal children are repaid. The quantity of the families receiving велфэр, has sharply increased. With 1965 for 1995 their number made 10 % from all American families, and number of illegitimate children - 15 % from all children. As the majority of dependents were the Negroes, the following explanation of a problem has appeared: She is supposedly caused by black genes though the statistics of a birth of illegal children and беременностей girls - teenagers in first half of century for black a little than differed from similar parameters for white.

In 1997 the new law providing велфэр for women and their children within only five years has come into force. The option has been given to the addressee of the grant: or to be on велфэре all five years on end, or to break this term for some shorter periods. Around of the law there were many disputes: some high-ranking officials in administration of Clinton have retired, protesting thus against they counted an attack on the most defenceless - mothers - singles and their children. Experts predicted, that by 1997-98 the number of addressees велфэра will increase from 12 million up to 14. Actually, this prediction has shown an example of the racist attitude of liberals with kind intentions which in any way did not expect rational behaviour from the Negroes. On the business black girls appeared reasonable enough to accept contraceptive means, and the quantity велфэрщиков was reduced from 12 million up to 4. It has allowed to count the law the most successful social reform in the American history.





In the first part of this clause it was told about the concept of German professor Gunnara Gejnzona « the Malignant demographic priority of youth » which the author counts responsible for global terrorism. In his opinion, the demographic priority of the disappointed young men is responsible for the majority of problems which the modern world has collided. Ideologies of violence involve supporters as a result of pressure both demographic, and sociopolitical, including programs велфэра, a unlimited gain of birth rate, immigration. Гейнзон it is convinced, that ideologies did not create terror and violence, and on the contrary, reaction to wreck of hopes and a dissatisfaction with existing position have generated them and have distributed.

Part II Ideology, religion and immigration - that primarily, what again?

Ideology

In 1500th years the small European countries, since Portugal and Spain, have started to win large regions of the world. There is an erroneous belief, that it happened because of an overpopulation. Actually any overpopulation was not: in 1350 the population of Spain made 9 million person, and in 1493 when gains have begun, - only 6 million. However during this period in families the sudden increase in number of children was marked. The factor of birth rate has raised from 2 - 3 children in family up to 6 - 7 children after in 1484 have been declared by the decree of the Daddy, that artificial restriction of birth rate is punishable by death. In result middle age of the population making 28 - 30 years in 1350, has decreased to 15 years in 1493. Now in families was many boys who were not knowing to what to apply the forces, and many "have preferred" to begin colonizers and conquerors. 95 % конкистадоров (in Spain them named "secundones" - the second sons) were very young. They could consider to destroy or oppress defeated peoples for a sin, but religious bosses inspired them, that they not murderers, and fighters for validity that are obliged to destroy pagans and sinners with pure conscience and from a permission of authorities.

Гейнзон names these conquerors "христианистами" ("Christianists"), instead of and it is simple Christians that allows to lead analogy to modern "Islamites" (Islamists) and moslems. Гейнзон emphasizes, that young people search and with readiness perceive ideology which excuses and relieves their responsibility: « When will ripen the moment, new religious brochures and books will be written. From these sacred books, be the Koran, the Bible, « Mein Kampf », « the Communistic manifest », etc., that justifies your purpose undertakes. You know, that will create violence, but want, that thus conscience of you did not torment. You kill in the blessing of idea, and therefore you are a rithteous person. But when the youth ceases to be in demographic overweight to these books printed in millions of copies, interest completely is lost: all already know, that, besides ideological dust, there anything is not present.

However in conditions of a demographic priority of youth this youth becomes deaf to reasons of mind and conscience. Wrong ideas do not appear from the Scriptus, they are created by young people, because wrong ideas are necessary for them to justify the actions. Hence, they cannot be stopped, having explained, that their ideas are wrong. Movements are not created by wrong ideas. On the contrary, wrong ideas are born in reply to need of movement. Исламизм it is created not by an islam, and young moslems ».

Emigration
Immigration problems of Europe are dual: on the one hand, the most vigorous and talented leave, and birth rate at the rest very low, on the other hand, immigrants from the countries of the Third world have no sufficient formation, and are made multiple copies by the accelerated rates.
Now Germans, Dutchs, the Frenchmen will emigrate from the countries as never. Only from Germany annually leave 150000 person, and the majority of them go in the Anglo-Saxon countries. Every year Canada, Australia and New Zealand with readiness accept 1,5 million educated immigrants and use the best efforts to facilitate their entrance to the countries. Professor Gejnzon does not show in this occasion of any surprise: « It is no wonder, that young hardworking people in France and Germany prefer to emigrate, and not only because on their shoulders ложится a duty "to feed" growing old indigenous population of own country. If we shall take 100 20-years Frenchmen and Germans 70 from them also should contain 30 immigrants of their own age, and also their offsprings. It is simply unacceptable for many, is especial in France, Germany and Netherlands. For this reason they run.

Present criteria of Europe for acceptance of immigrants are reduced to the following:
1) Whether they are victims of discrimination?
2) Whether they already have relatives in Europe?
3) If they have driven to Europe illegally, they should be legalized, and
4) - the least important - the immigrant should be claimed by a labour market.

Germany - only one example of loss of billions because of lack of the qualified labour. There is present two million accessible vacancies which there is nobody to fill, and at the same time on programs велфэра sit 6 million dependents. In France on each woman it is necessary two children, however from each five newborn two children are given birth by the Arabian or African women. In Germany of all newborns of 35 % are not Germans, 90 % of grave crimes are made not by Germans. In Tunis on each woman it is necessary 1,7 children. In France she presumes to have to herself six children because the French government pays to it the generous grant to everyone. The Canadian immigration policy is opposite European: each new Canadian coming from abroad, should answer high enough educational and professional criteria. As a result of 98 from 100 Canadian adult immigrants have the best professional qualification, than the average Canadian. In Germany and in France the similar parameter makes only 10 %.

In Europe all went on a wrong way somewhere in the beginning 1980. In Germany large changes came for 1990th years when immigration became mass: between 1990 and 2002 to Germany unskilled workers have driven 13 million immigrants, from which majority. The same has taken place and in France. To remove such heavy burden of general prosperity from the state budget it is possible only through the legislation. It is necessary to pass the law according to which children who have been given birth after stipulated date, should be supported not by the state, and at the parents. It will be revolution. But such revolutionary way to Europe is not discussed at all ».

Professor Gejnzon completely not optimistically looks in the future and a little that can advise. It would like to see the big immigration from China, but thus recognizes, that the educated Chinese hardly will aspire to live in the country where they should feed so much dependents. It rejects an opportunity of armed resistance in the event that the economy of the European countries will fail under pressure of idlers - immigrants: « And who remain to struggle? All youth by then will leave ». The professor results result of the poll which has been lead in 2005 in Germany: 52 % from age group 18 - 32 want to leave. Unique who remain true and loyal avocates of the present social device in France, in Holland, in the Scandinavian countries and in Germany, it is living on велфэре. They recognize: « Anywhere in the world about us so will not care ».

I with all agree. Unfortunately, concerning the future of Europe it is not enough reasons for optimism. I can hope only, that America will not follow the lead of Europeans, and that we still have time to understand, that system which now we try to introduce, provides preference for talented, intellectual, formed and capable, and that this system will put in pawn a basis of our future which can be much more light, rather than what threatens old Europe, - to continent lost.

2007-12-06

Political asylum in Byelorussia?

On November, 28 the citizen of Switzerland has crossed frontier in item of customs registration « the Warsaw bridge » and has asked a political asylum in Byelorussia

The foreigner has not casually chosen a place of the further residing our republic. And in fact several months ago it about such country at all did not hear. But his mister Bush who in sharp tones has expressed to address of Byelorussia has educated. The USA the Swiss listened to speech of the president and looked on TV. After that our visitor has decided to find out for itself, that itself the country and where it is located represents unknown to it. The information from the Internet has simply subdued the man. Yes so, that it has decided to move here on a constant residence.

In RB it has driven from Poland on automobile " Zhigulis " of 2004 of release. At a barrier has informed the Byelorussian frontier guards that is going to ask a political asylum in Byelorussia. On a deep belief of the foreigner, Byelorussia, Venezuela and Cuba are the best in the world of the state. In car there were personal things and the collected works of the leader of world proletariat of Vladimir Lenina.

Now the Swiss lives in the Center of accommodation of the migrants(CAM), erected in March, 2007 in the street Heroes of Defense with assistance of EU. It can freely move across Brest while his destiny is solved. However at 22 o'clock should come back in hotel.

Having learned this information, on December, 1 I have decided to meet our visitor. However this attempt has not crowned success. Further doors CAM of us with the translator have not passed. To me have explained, that the meeting with the Swiss is a competence of Department on migration and citizenship of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

As it was possible to find out from other sources, the Swiss well speaks in English, it likes Brest. To work it it agree even in any collective farm of republic and on any post. The visitor before trip to Byelorussia studied in one of universities of the country.

The deputy chief of the Department of Internal Affairs Brest's Milicia Vladimir Harik has confirmed the fact of a presence of the Swiss in CAM and has informed: according to the Law on refugees, now there is a procedure of check of documents on a recognition staying the refugee. The information is strictly confidential.

However, as expert people have assured of questions of citizenship and migration me, to our visitor "does not shine" to live in Byelorussia as to the refugee as there are no powerful bases for granting to it this status.

All essence - in ties

The high-ranking official of Ministry of Defence is arrested
The Byelorussian military Office of Public Prosecutor authorized arrest of the lieutenant colonel of the Ministry of Defence. The next scandal in military department is connected to deliveries of ware property for needs of the Byelorussian army and lobbying of interests of commercial structure to the detriment of interests of the ministry. All essence - in ties.
quarry
Such scandals - the big rarity in Ministry of Defence. Military department has tested a similar discomfiture only in 2005 when the head of department of rocket - artillery arms of the ministry colonel Vladimir Talaj has been arrested. It on cheap stuff sold for bribes to businessmen army automobiles. On a dock director of Department of a price policy of the Ministry of Economics Anatoly Pupko has got not only V.Talaj, but also the commander of one of the military units deployed in Gomel, five representatives of business and …. In May of present year the Military board of the Supreme court has born a severe verdict all accused, having appointed him solid terms of punishment. Colonel V.Talaj, in particular, has been sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment with confiscation of property.

Has not had time to take breath Ministry of Defence after condemnation of the colonel as has burst new scandal. And, by the beginning of investigation, a consequence from this affair can be not less serious. Probably, for this reason the Ministry of Defence refuses any comments on it. The chief of the press-service of Ministry of Defence Vyacheslav Remenchik has declared "а": " I cannot give comments on this business without the written sanction of consequence ".

This time under criminal prosecution the lieutenant colonel - the chief of a department of orders and deliveries of ware property of Ministry of Defence has pleased. Operative development concerning it was carried out with Management of military counterspionage of KGB where also while refuse any comments.

Meanwhile it was possible to find out, that claims to the lieutenant colonel have arisen because of deliveries of officer ties. In opinion of consequence, at carrying out of procedure of purchase of ties the chief of a department lobby interests of one firm at which has bought production under the overestimated price. As a result of Ministry of Defence has overpaid for presentable appearance of the officers about 40 million roubles. Naturally, in sight consequences have got both a business concern, and other officers MD involved in the given transaction.

Let's remind, that under the Byelorussian legislation of the transaction with use of budgetary funds for the sum from above 3 million roubles should consist through the tender. However, in Byelorussia the tender already for a long time has ceased to be a barrier. Corryptioners usually divide one large transaction into ten fine, each of which does not exceed the established limit, and thus receive full freedom in a choice of the supplier.

How the lieutenant colonel has managed to lead the transaction by vigilant eye sets of controllers while it is not clear. It should establish consequence. Now concerning the lieutenant colonel criminal case on ч.3 item 455 CC RB (abusing authority, excess of authority or inactivity the authorities which have entailed heavy consequences) which provides punishment till 12 years of imprisonment is excited.

2007-11-12

The American mafia in the Byelorussian prison?

2007...

In 2004 in Brest it has been registered « Belamer Company » as which founders have acted American company « Tower Company East » on behalf of representative David Bogatina, and his son, the Russian citizen, Sergey Bogatin. In the autumn of the same year the enterprise, having constructed on the rented areas in gas boiler-house and having established the equipment, started manufacture of semifinished items for the food-processing industry as fruit jam. However has not passed also half-year as on « Беламер Компани » problems have begun. The salary to workers was late, people sent in no-charge holidays. Under the initial version, the reason of troubles became two bank credits, taken in the Byelorussian banks under purchase of reed sugar. The enterprise has already transferred money to the American supplier when in Byelorussia the decree establishing the new order of taxation by the customs of imported sugar has left.

In December, 2005 founders of the enterprise have made the decision on his liquidation: procedure was supposed to be finished till September, 30, 2006. But in January 2006 investigatory management of Department of financial investigations has excited criminal case in attitude Bogatin. It was found out, that the foreign enterprise has run into debt not only to banks. Even now the total sum of debts to creditors makes 623 million 788 thousand Byelorussian roubles, and the first in turn on reception of duties former workers « Belaner Company » still cost.
Half-year ago both founders, foreign citizens, have been deprived freedom and now serve time in the Byelorussian prison.

...and 1992
Entrepreneur Who Left U.S. Is Back, Awaiting Sentence

By SAM HOWE VERHOVEK,
Published: April 30, 1992

First he fled the United States after pleading guilty to running what New York officials called one of the largest gasoline bootlegging schemes in the nation.

Then he emerged as an entrepreneur in post-Communist Poland, founding a successful frozen-fruit exporting business and a private bank.

He even staved off a run on his bank when a Polish newspaper revealed his fugitive status, promising higher interest rates and a lottery for cars and apartments to nervous depositors who maintained their accounts.

But now David Bogatin, a Russian native with United States citizenship whom even his prosecutors concede is an indefatigable businessman, is back in New York and in jail and awaiting resentencing. Today a State Supreme Court judge denied Mr. Bogatin's request for bail while the authorities here and in Brooklyn and Long Island decide just what to do with him.

The 46-year-old Mr. Bogatin is the first person ever returned to this country under the terms of a 1927 extradition treaty between Poland and the United States. Mr. Bogatin and Polish officials both say that until the newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, published an article about him early this year, nobody in Poland had asked him any questions about where he or the money that he used to begin his businesses came from...

2007-11-01

Second leg of Yamal-Europe

Russian ambassador says that it is inexpedient to build second leg of Yamal-Europe
Aleksandr Surikov, the Russian ambassador to Belarus, told reporters in Minsk on November 1 that it would be inexpedient to build a second leg of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline that runs via Belarus.
He explained that the construction the trans-Baltic Nord Stream pipeline had already begun, and that that pipeline via the Baltic Sea is advantageous, as it would enable direct supplies to Europe, bypassing intermediaries.
While visiting Minsk on October 19, Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov promised that Moscow would consider once again the expediency of the construction of a second leg of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. He noted that this project would not constitute a big problem, but, according to him, it is necessary to have a clear view of Russia’s supply potential and the consumption of gas in Belarus and Europe.
Alyaksandr Lukashenka suggested earlier in October that Russia should abandon the idea of building a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. He said that Russia should instead double the capacity of the Yamal-Europe pipeline running via Belarus by building its second leg, and offered free gas transit through the country in the following five years.
“Why have you decided to go under the Baltic? Don’t you remember I told you that nothing good will come of this?” the Belarusian leader said while meeting with a group of Russian provincial journalists on October 12. “If you are afraid that it is going be too expensive [to build the second leg], we’ll give you tax and fee breaks on gas transit for five years. Just don’t do stupid things!”

Forest lake and staircase in the sky




Lukashenka met with Russian oligarchs too often

Only within last week Lukashenka has met with three oligarchs – two Russian ones (Igor Makarov and Vladimir Yevtushenkov) and a Chinese one (He Xiangjian). The personal meetings of Lukashenka with businessmen of such rank have never been so intensive since 2002, when he had to work off his another presidential term for the Russian businessmen.



Belarusian «oligarchs» can loose their houses



More than 90 squatted land lots have been vacated and more than 70 illegally constructed buildings and metal garages have been demolished after the examination held by the State Control Committee in Gomel region, press-service of Gomel region State Control Committee reports.

26 officials of the regional land planning and geodesic services and authorities of the regional committee for nature resources and environment protection were called to disciplinary account. 62 administrative protocols were filed, 28 were examined. The total sum of the administrative fine made BR 9 mln.

According to the press-service, 7 resolutions of the local executive and administrative bodies were declined and arranged according to the legal norms for land deals; two rent agreements for land lots were annulled. Squatted land lots are being vacated and illegally constructed buildings and garages are being demolished.

Hope, you will get on all right


Political regime in Belarus is most repressive in Europe


Political regime in Belarus is most repressive in Europe

The visit of Souhayr Belhassen, President of the International Federation for Human Rights is over. She has been in Belarus since 28 October and had meetings with the relatives of the political prisoners, representatives of political parties and public organizations in Minsk and Hrodna. The representatives of four ministries – justice, information, internal and foreign affairs, didn’t want to meet with the President of the International Federation for Human Rights.
Lawyer not allowed visiting detained Halloween participants

Celebrate Halloween in Minsk

Today participants of Halloween celebration Yury Shalin, Andrei Kim, Valyantsin Sakalouski and Tatsyana Lashkaryova are to stand trial on petty hooliganism charges. In this way police has classified the attempt of the young guys to celebrate Halloween in Minsk the day before.