Say Frumkin
(the Malignant priority of youth)
On July, 10 2007
Part I
The friend has sent me from England the English translation of the interview published in the Danish language with German professor Gunnarom Gejnzonom, having advised to read it, despite of possible depressive reaction. I would not like to read 16 pages at all, as at me and so the heap not read has collected. But having seen the beginning, I could not come off any more.
Interview have been taken concerning an output in 2003 of his sensational book: « Sons and world supremacy: a role of terror in rise and falling of the nations » (Sohne und Weltmacht: Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen). This book became the best seller all over the world, but to the English language till now is not transferred. In the introduction the citation of the modern German philosopher considering is resulted in the book, that this book is not less important and significant, rather than Marks's "Capital".
Having read it, I have immediately gone on Google and have found out, that the author - the 63-years professor of the Bremen university, the sociologist, the economist and the researcher of a genocide. It has written set of books about rising and a decline of civilizations, since the Bronze age, Ancient Greece, middle East and буддистских the countries and finishing the Holocaust and modern Europe.
In the book « Sons and world supremacy » it gives an explanation to the phenomenon generated a unforeseen and inexplicable wave of terrorism and violence which breaks now our world, having named this phenomenon « a malignant demographic priority of youth » (« Youth Bulge »).
Definition of this phenomenon proves to be true elementary mathematical calculation - comparison of quantity of men in the age of 40 - 44 years with boys in the age of from 0 till 4 years. Demographic failure occurs then when on everyone 100 men in the age of 40 - 44 years are necessary less, than 80 boys in the age of from 0 till 4 years. In Germany this parity is equal 100/50, and in sector of Gaza - 100/464.
Гейнзон uses the term « demographic failure » to characterize the countries which will be unable to resist to a priority of youth from other countries. Germany and Japan демографически are ready to delivery to the countries similar Muslim, - to Afghanistan (100 men / 403 of the boy), Iraq (100 men / 351 of the boy) and Somalia (100 men / 364 of the boy).
The violence tends to occur in those societies where young men from 15 till 29 years make more than 30 % from the general population. The reasons - religion, nationalism, marxism, fascism i.e. in the name of what this violence is managed, - are insignificant. Now in the world there are 67 countries with a demographic priority of youth, in 60 from them already occurs either a mass genocide, or civil war.
Гейнзон does not consider, that the economic and humanitarian help to the countries with a demographic priority of youth can prevent wars, social excitements, terror or massacre. On the contrary, in some cases this material aid given with the best intentions, is the reason of violence. It regrets for the decision of America to send the armies to Iraq and Afghanistan, it counts campaign on intervention in affairs of Darfur completely useless. Гейнзон advises to inform Palestinians, that the West will not pay in him any more for unlimited деторождение, that they should feed the families with 10 and more children. It also condemns widely widespread theory of the western elite according to which all violence in a geographical belt from Northern Africa up to Philippines, and also distribution of terrorism on all other part of the world is caused by the unsolved арабо-Israeli conflict.
Starving people are not at war, they only suffer. But violence - predicted and inevitable result when young people are full and live in a society where it is too many them and where they are indignant at this society as understand, that it is not capable to claim for them.
For last years the West has collided a huge priority of youth in the most part of the Muslim world where there is a population explosion. During only five generations (1900 - 2000) the population in the Muslim world has grown from 150 million up to 1200 million person, i.e. it is more than on 800 %. For comparison: the population of China has grown from 400 million up to 1200 million person (300 %), and the population of India - from 250 million up to 1000 million (400 %).
Between 1988 and 2002 in less developed countries were born 900 million sons, and hot points became practically predicted: on the eve талибанского revolution in 1993 the population of Afghanistan has grown with 14 up to 22 million; in Iraq in 1950 was 5 million person, and now there 25 million, despite of constant wars during a quarter of century; since 1967 the population of the Western coast and sector of Gaza has grown with 450000 up to 3,3 million, and 47 % from them are younger than 15 years!
By the end of life of present generation in Afghanistan as much young men than 20 years, how many in France and the incorporated Germany taken together will be younger. The Palestinian aggression of recent months and years cannot be explained Israeli "occupation" (eventually, it began 30 years ago), poverty (the most aggressive regions of the Muslim world not the poorest) or humiliations. It is simple violence in the name of violence.
On the general recognition, movements Гитлера and Mussolini, the early Bolshevism, маоистское movement in China both many other massacre and wars were not result of a demographic priority of youth. But if at Germans after 1945 birth rate was same as during the period between 1900 and 1914 now the population of Germany would make almost 500 million citizens, and approximately 80 million would come on young men in the age of from 15 till 29 years (now in this age group of all of 7 million). We can ask a question: would conduct itself these of 80 million as peacefully how present 7 million, or they would want to return to Germany Бреслау (present Вроцлав), Danzig (Gdansk), Кенигсберг (Kaliningrad) which have departed to Poland and the USSR in 1945 - 1946 гг?
Palestinians are the most indicative example: they receive more than the international help per capita, than any other displaced persons or refugees as the income of each Palestinian family is estimated by quantity of children. Thus, children - not material burden, and on the contrary - a fine source of the income.
In the meantime in Lebanon, Tunis, Algeria, Iran, Turkey, Emirates and in some other countries birth rate has decreased to a level of 2 children in family as there to contain and train children - pleasure rather expensive. And though in these countries still there is "overabundance" of young people which were born earlier, in some years the demographic priority of youth will be liquidated and will cease to be dangerous.
Changes of the American system велфэра evidently show, how it is possible "to repair" demographic failure. In 1935 in the USA have been accepted the law « the Help to children - dependents » which guaranteed the help against the state of each mother having minor children in families where the husband either has died, or became the invalid. At that time to any woman, white or black, it was a shame to receive the grant to illegitimate children from a society. But by 1965 the social ethics has changed: the man in family of jobless mother became a handicap while illegal children are repaid. The quantity of the families receiving велфэр, has sharply increased. With 1965 for 1995 their number made 10 % from all American families, and number of illegitimate children - 15 % from all children. As the majority of dependents were the Negroes, the following explanation of a problem has appeared: She is supposedly caused by black genes though the statistics of a birth of illegal children and беременностей girls - teenagers in first half of century for black a little than differed from similar parameters for white.
In 1997 the new law providing велфэр for women and their children within only five years has come into force. The option has been given to the addressee of the grant: or to be on велфэре all five years on end, or to break this term for some shorter periods. Around of the law there were many disputes: some high-ranking officials in administration of Clinton have retired, protesting thus against they counted an attack on the most defenceless - mothers - singles and their children. Experts predicted, that by 1997-98 the number of addressees велфэра will increase from 12 million up to 14. Actually, this prediction has shown an example of the racist attitude of liberals with kind intentions which in any way did not expect rational behaviour from the Negroes. On the business black girls appeared reasonable enough to accept contraceptive means, and the quantity велфэрщиков was reduced from 12 million up to 4. It has allowed to count the law the most successful social reform in the American history.
In the first part of this clause it was told about the concept of German professor Gunnara Gejnzona « the Malignant demographic priority of youth » which the author counts responsible for global terrorism. In his opinion, the demographic priority of the disappointed young men is responsible for the majority of problems which the modern world has collided. Ideologies of violence involve supporters as a result of pressure both demographic, and sociopolitical, including programs велфэра, a unlimited gain of birth rate, immigration. Гейнзон it is convinced, that ideologies did not create terror and violence, and on the contrary, reaction to wreck of hopes and a dissatisfaction with existing position have generated them and have distributed.
Part II Ideology, religion and immigration - that primarily, what again?
Ideology
In 1500th years the small European countries, since Portugal and Spain, have started to win large regions of the world. There is an erroneous belief, that it happened because of an overpopulation. Actually any overpopulation was not: in 1350 the population of Spain made 9 million person, and in 1493 when gains have begun, - only 6 million. However during this period in families the sudden increase in number of children was marked. The factor of birth rate has raised from 2 - 3 children in family up to 6 - 7 children after in 1484 have been declared by the decree of the Daddy, that artificial restriction of birth rate is punishable by death. In result middle age of the population making 28 - 30 years in 1350, has decreased to 15 years in 1493. Now in families was many boys who were not knowing to what to apply the forces, and many "have preferred" to begin colonizers and conquerors. 95 % конкистадоров (in Spain them named "secundones" - the second sons) were very young. They could consider to destroy or oppress defeated peoples for a sin, but religious bosses inspired them, that they not murderers, and fighters for validity that are obliged to destroy pagans and sinners with pure conscience and from a permission of authorities.
Гейнзон names these conquerors "христианистами" ("Christianists"), instead of and it is simple Christians that allows to lead analogy to modern "Islamites" (Islamists) and moslems. Гейнзон emphasizes, that young people search and with readiness perceive ideology which excuses and relieves their responsibility: « When will ripen the moment, new religious brochures and books will be written. From these sacred books, be the Koran, the Bible, « Mein Kampf », « the Communistic manifest », etc., that justifies your purpose undertakes. You know, that will create violence, but want, that thus conscience of you did not torment. You kill in the blessing of idea, and therefore you are a rithteous person. But when the youth ceases to be in demographic overweight to these books printed in millions of copies, interest completely is lost: all already know, that, besides ideological dust, there anything is not present.
However in conditions of a demographic priority of youth this youth becomes deaf to reasons of mind and conscience. Wrong ideas do not appear from the Scriptus, they are created by young people, because wrong ideas are necessary for them to justify the actions. Hence, they cannot be stopped, having explained, that their ideas are wrong. Movements are not created by wrong ideas. On the contrary, wrong ideas are born in reply to need of movement. Исламизм it is created not by an islam, and young moslems ».
Emigration
Immigration problems of Europe are dual: on the one hand, the most vigorous and talented leave, and birth rate at the rest very low, on the other hand, immigrants from the countries of the Third world have no sufficient formation, and are made multiple copies by the accelerated rates.
Now Germans, Dutchs, the Frenchmen will emigrate from the countries as never. Only from Germany annually leave 150000 person, and the majority of them go in the Anglo-Saxon countries. Every year Canada, Australia and New Zealand with readiness accept 1,5 million educated immigrants and use the best efforts to facilitate their entrance to the countries. Professor Gejnzon does not show in this occasion of any surprise: « It is no wonder, that young hardworking people in France and Germany prefer to emigrate, and not only because on their shoulders ложится a duty "to feed" growing old indigenous population of own country. If we shall take 100 20-years Frenchmen and Germans 70 from them also should contain 30 immigrants of their own age, and also their offsprings. It is simply unacceptable for many, is especial in France, Germany and Netherlands. For this reason they run.
Present criteria of Europe for acceptance of immigrants are reduced to the following:
1) Whether they are victims of discrimination?
2) Whether they already have relatives in Europe?
3) If they have driven to Europe illegally, they should be legalized, and
4) - the least important - the immigrant should be claimed by a labour market.
Germany - only one example of loss of billions because of lack of the qualified labour. There is present two million accessible vacancies which there is nobody to fill, and at the same time on programs велфэра sit 6 million dependents. In France on each woman it is necessary two children, however from each five newborn two children are given birth by the Arabian or African women. In Germany of all newborns of 35 % are not Germans, 90 % of grave crimes are made not by Germans. In Tunis on each woman it is necessary 1,7 children. In France she presumes to have to herself six children because the French government pays to it the generous grant to everyone. The Canadian immigration policy is opposite European: each new Canadian coming from abroad, should answer high enough educational and professional criteria. As a result of 98 from 100 Canadian adult immigrants have the best professional qualification, than the average Canadian. In Germany and in France the similar parameter makes only 10 %.
In Europe all went on a wrong way somewhere in the beginning 1980. In Germany large changes came for 1990th years when immigration became mass: between 1990 and 2002 to Germany unskilled workers have driven 13 million immigrants, from which majority. The same has taken place and in France. To remove such heavy burden of general prosperity from the state budget it is possible only through the legislation. It is necessary to pass the law according to which children who have been given birth after stipulated date, should be supported not by the state, and at the parents. It will be revolution. But such revolutionary way to Europe is not discussed at all ».
Professor Gejnzon completely not optimistically looks in the future and a little that can advise. It would like to see the big immigration from China, but thus recognizes, that the educated Chinese hardly will aspire to live in the country where they should feed so much dependents. It rejects an opportunity of armed resistance in the event that the economy of the European countries will fail under pressure of idlers - immigrants: « And who remain to struggle? All youth by then will leave ». The professor results result of the poll which has been lead in 2005 in Germany: 52 % from age group 18 - 32 want to leave. Unique who remain true and loyal avocates of the present social device in France, in Holland, in the Scandinavian countries and in Germany, it is living on велфэре. They recognize: « Anywhere in the world about us so will not care ».
I with all agree. Unfortunately, concerning the future of Europe it is not enough reasons for optimism. I can hope only, that America will not follow the lead of Europeans, and that we still have time to understand, that system which now we try to introduce, provides preference for talented, intellectual, formed and capable, and that this system will put in pawn a basis of our future which can be much more light, rather than what threatens old Europe, - to continent lost.
